India is on track to surpass its 2030 climate target of reducing the emissions intensity of its GDP by 45% compared to 2005 levels. This projection comes from a recent emissions modeling analysis conducted by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) and the Alliance for an Energy Efficient Economy (AEEE). The study, published in the journal Energy and Climate Change, estimates a potential reduction between 48% and 57% by 2030.
Insights from the Study
The analysis suggests that with current policies and initiatives, India could achieve a more significant decrease in emissions intensity than previously anticipated. The study also projects that by 2035, India’s emissions intensity could reduce by 55% to 66% relative to 2005 levels. Additionally, the share of non-fossil fuel sources in the country’s installed power capacity could increase to 60%–68%.
Official Statements Highlight Progress
Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Senior Fellow, CEEW, noted, “India has shown climate leadership in different ways since Paris Agreement. It has also shown growth and decoupling of emissions can go together.” He further added that with ambitious reforms in numerous sectors, India can steeply bend its net zero emissions.
Satish Kumar, AEEE’s Executive Director and President, wrote, “By taking the important energy efficiency parameters as endogenous variables in the reference climate model, our study makes new contributions to incorporating the real-world potential of demand-side interventions.” He emphasized it makes the model more robust and rooted in reality in consonance with India’s development realities.
Future Climate Commitments
India submitted its updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the UNFCCC in August 2022, aiming to reduce emissions intensity by 45% and achieve 50% cumulative electric installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy resources by 2030. Countries are required to submit their next round of national climate plans for the 2031–2035 period this year. With most countries, including India, missing the February 10 deadline, UN climate change chief Simon Stiell has urged them to submit their plans by September at the latest.
Conclusion
The findings from the CEEW and AEEE analysis underscore India’s potential to exceed its 2030 climate targets. Continued policy interventions, technological advancements, and commitment to sustainable practices will be crucial in maintaining this trajectory and achieving long-term environmental goals.
